For the first time on record, small business owners rank cash flow above inflation as their single biggest worry. A new Small Business Cash Flow Trend Report from OnDeck and Ocrolus, built on 651 businesses with working capital loans and more than 3.69 million financing applications over the prior 15 months, found that 31% of owners now name cash flow their top concern, against 29% for inflation. The gap is two points. What it signals is bigger than that.
What the 2026 Data Actually Shows
A small shift at the top of a concern ranking is easy to wave off. This one is worth sitting with, because it is not happening in isolation. The same report found 93% of small business owners expect their business to grow in 2026, with a record 32% expecting significant growth. At the same time, 76% now say they bypass traditional banks for capital, also an all time high. Owners are confident about demand and uneasy about the mechanics of running the business day to day.
A separate, differently built survey backs up the underlying discomfort even if it frames the headline differently. The Q2 2026 Ipsos and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index came in at 66.5, essentially flat against 67.0 in Q1. But underneath that stability, fewer owners said they felt very comfortable with their cash flow than the quarter before, and more described the national and local economy as very poor. Inflation still tops that particular survey’s ranking, cited by close to three in five owners as the biggest challenge. Two surveys, two methodologies, two rankings. What they agree on is that comfort with cash position is eroding even where broader sentiment holds steady.
Here is what the recent data adds up to, pulled from multiple 2026 sources:
| Signal | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Owners naming cash flow their #1 concern | 31% | OnDeck / Ocrolus, 2026 |
| Owners naming inflation their #1 concern | 29% | OnDeck / Ocrolus, 2026 |
| Owners now bypassing traditional banks for capital | 76% (record high) | OnDeck / Ocrolus, 2026 |
| Owners expecting significant revenue growth in 2026 | 32% (record high) | OnDeck / Ocrolus, 2026 |
| Small businesses with invoices overdue 30+ days | 59%, up from 47% last year | Intuit QuickBooks 2026 Small Business Late Payments Report |
Why Growth Is Part of the Problem, Not the Fix
Inflation squeezes margin. Cash flow decides whether payroll clears on Friday. That distinction explains why cash flow can overtake inflation as a worry even while growth expectations hit a record high. Growth is not free. It usually has to be funded before it is earned. Inventory, staff, and equipment tend to get paid for weeks or months before the customer’s invoice clears, and the businesses expecting the fastest growth in 2026 are the ones most exposed to that gap.
This is the same mechanic behind why profitable businesses still run out of cash. Profit is an accounting outcome measured over a period. Cash is a daily balance. A business can be growing and profitable on paper and still miss payroll because the timing between spending and collecting has stretched further than its buffer can absorb.
The overdue invoice data reinforces this. When 59% of businesses are carrying invoices more than 30 days overdue, growth in sales does not automatically translate into growth in usable cash. It just means more money sitting in accounts receivable while bills for the growth itself come due on schedule.
What to Actually Do With This Signal
Treat the concern ranking as an instruction, not a headline. Three moves matter most heading into the second half of 2026:
Build a rolling 13 day to 13 week cash view instead of relying on a single annual forecast. Short, frequently updated windows catch timing problems that annual plans miss entirely. Finoya’s cash flow forecasting tools pull directly from your books so this view updates itself rather than requiring a fresh spreadsheet every week.
Track days-to-pay as closely as revenue. A customer who pays in 45 days instead of 15 is quietly financing your growth at your expense. Tightening terms or following up earlier is often cheaper than any loan.
Model what happens if growth accelerates faster than expected, not just what happens if it slows. Most scenario planning defaults to worst case. Given that 32% of owners expect significant growth this year, the more useful stress test for many businesses is the opposite one: can the business actually fund the growth it is hoping for. A rolling 13-week cash flow forecast is the simplest version of this test, and it takes an afternoon to build once, not every week.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did cash flow overtake inflation as the top small business concern?
Inflation affects the cost side of a business gradually, over months and quarters. Cash flow affects whether a specific payroll run or vendor payment clears this week. As growth expectations climbed into 2026, more owners hit the practical reality that funding growth requires cash before the growth itself generates it, which makes the timing problem more urgent than the pricing problem for a growing share of businesses.
Does a record number of owners expecting growth make cash flow worse?
It can. Growth usually means spending on inventory, staff, or equipment ahead of the revenue it is meant to produce. A business with 32% expected growth and no forecast covering the gap between spending and collecting is more exposed to a cash crunch than a flat business with the same revenue, not less.
The pattern also shows up unevenly across industries. A services business with short billing cycles absorbs growth-driven cash pressure differently than one waiting 30, 60, or 90 days on invoices. That is part of why a single national concern ranking, however useful as a signal, cannot replace a forecast built on your own receivables and payment terms.
Try It With Your Own Numbers
If cash flow has moved up your own list of worries, the fix starts with visibility, not guesswork. Connect your QuickBooks or Xero account and get your first cash flow forecast in under 60 seconds.
Create your free Finoya account and see what your cash flow looks like for the next 90 days, before the next invoice comes due.